The slow season is coming to an end. Traders are flocking back to the office. I expect a surge in volume come mid-September. After the incessant rally over the course of this summer, I'm ready for some real pricing action. Why? Because I hate a straight up chart. It gives no grounds for support or resistance. We need some hammering around. We need a good, solid correction to come into play.
I'm expecting a 10% correction by November. Don't know when it'll come or how it'll come. I prefer a long, drawn out process as opposed to a 3-day puke fest. I'm looking for crude to come down to $60/barrel. I'm looking for the financial sector to let some steam out after their incredible rally over cooked earnings. I'm also looking for more housing pains. Whoever called the housing bottom obviously has enough cash already and isn't one of the many who are still facing foreclosure or job loss or budget cuts. Real America is still in the process of belt tightening as indicated by the savings rate. I expect that rate to continue to increase.
I'm still overwhelmingly in cash and am happy to take things slower. Yes, I participated in the rally but I did cut out a tad bit early. I don't usually like trading in froth. That's what I see many doing right now. Good luck.
No comments:
Post a Comment