Nokia's released a stream of good news this week. Huh, Nokia? Yes, you remember the once must-have cell phone before Blackberries and iPhones came to market. The company that you thought was Japanese but is really Swedish. Yes, that Nokia.
Nokia was late to the smartphone game and has been losing overall market share over the last few years...in the US. Nokia, indeed, has a strong presence in many countries, but especially in the BRIC countries. Its infrastructure is deep and established and that matters when you bring products to market. I won't rehash what announcements Nokia made this week (search it yourself), but they're pretty exciting. I expect Nokia to remake itself to be a real competitor in the coming years not only in the smartphone game but in the mobile computing space.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Sitting Ever So Still
I'm bored with the market, especially the last 2 weeks. I've sold down a lot of positions over the course of this rally and have also removed myself from a bunch of others. These days I'm stockpiling on cash. If the market keeps churning higher, I will keep selling. I will keep dumping money into low-rate savings accounts. Yup, I'm content earning 0.5% for now.
I may be bored but I'm still attached to the market. I'm keeping up to speed with daily developments. I'm just not trading. No sniping for me. I'm not even interested in building positions for the recovery. Why? Because I don't expect a booming recovery. I expect a slow, long road to recovery. Thus, I expect opportunities to surface over an extended period of time. Pick and choose type of scenario instead of pile in on whatever and watch everything rise to the moon.
Going to San Francisco next week for some time off. I'll likely bring my laptop this time. I don't expect any pick up in volume until sometime late in September or early October. But, I'll still want to watch.
I may be bored but I'm still attached to the market. I'm keeping up to speed with daily developments. I'm just not trading. No sniping for me. I'm not even interested in building positions for the recovery. Why? Because I don't expect a booming recovery. I expect a slow, long road to recovery. Thus, I expect opportunities to surface over an extended period of time. Pick and choose type of scenario instead of pile in on whatever and watch everything rise to the moon.
Going to San Francisco next week for some time off. I'll likely bring my laptop this time. I don't expect any pick up in volume until sometime late in September or early October. But, I'll still want to watch.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Overheated? I Think So.
I've been watching the travel sector the past couple months and have been pretty amazed at how it's pushed higher and higher. I see Starwood and Marriot continue to walk up the charts. I see Priceline, Orbitz and others popping bullishly. I see Hertz and Avis march in the same direction. Then I think to myself, "who's traveling these days?"
I understand that summer vacation usually translates into finding some R&R somewhere outside of your home. I also understand that businesses go on as usual. But, then I think about the housing crash and the jobless situation and the shuttering of so many businesses. These serious issues permeate everyday life and constrict most people and businesses to cutback everywhere they can. You have to be lean.
That brings me back to the travel industry. I think we've been overly optimistic here. I'm watching this closely for short entries. Airlines are consolidating and have been operating on a shoestring. Hotels are heavily discounting empty rooms. Traditional car rental agencies suck for the most part. And, even in a recovery these are the last to cycle thru...not the first.
I understand that summer vacation usually translates into finding some R&R somewhere outside of your home. I also understand that businesses go on as usual. But, then I think about the housing crash and the jobless situation and the shuttering of so many businesses. These serious issues permeate everyday life and constrict most people and businesses to cutback everywhere they can. You have to be lean.
That brings me back to the travel industry. I think we've been overly optimistic here. I'm watching this closely for short entries. Airlines are consolidating and have been operating on a shoestring. Hotels are heavily discounting empty rooms. Traditional car rental agencies suck for the most part. And, even in a recovery these are the last to cycle thru...not the first.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Mostly in Cash
We are officially over the half way hump for 2009. Things appeared pretty grim early on as the US economy suffered a major heart attack from the unraveling of several different bubbles. Investors everywhere were skirmish and afraid to take any risk. Main Street folks didn't exactly know what was going on apart from the constant media headlines, except they knew that their net worth had significantly shrunk. But, then came April's stock market rally. The bed-ridden patient was suddenly able to slowly walk again. A couple more months of training and he's off to running 5K's.
That brings us to the present day. I was actively trading early on in the we-are-not-going-to-have-a-depression rally and was cautiously optimistic for a recovery in the very latter half of the year. Now, I'm not so certain. The stock market supposedly prices in future events and the current rally has sure priced in a picture perfect recovery, which I don't think will be the case. My concern centers around the unemployed (including the part-timers wanting full-time positions), the dented personal balance sheets, the cautious business owners, and a hobbled consumer sentiment. These are major headaches for anything more than a bounce-and-reset staircase type of pattern. It's not going to be pretty.
I expect a back-to-the-bad reality market anytime now. It may not happen until after the summer season, but I am now almost certain it will come before the year end. We've run the markets up so far in such a short period (albeit from ugly levels) that we will need a dose of reality soon. The correction may be fast and furious (not enough backfilling creates gaps without support. ). Or it may be one of those that just drags on and on...well, you know how it is since this current rally is of that sort.
Recently, i have closed out positions in FWLT, NUE, C, EMC, MFE, YHOO, ESC, DAL, PRXL, HBC, X, IP, MCD, KO, WFT, SNE, RIO, COG. Most of these were swing positions held over the course of several weeks. I currently have little confidence in any particular sector. Suffice it to say, I am now holding 70% cash and sitting patiently waiting for the next blip.
That brings us to the present day. I was actively trading early on in the we-are-not-going-to-have-a-depression rally and was cautiously optimistic for a recovery in the very latter half of the year. Now, I'm not so certain. The stock market supposedly prices in future events and the current rally has sure priced in a picture perfect recovery, which I don't think will be the case. My concern centers around the unemployed (including the part-timers wanting full-time positions), the dented personal balance sheets, the cautious business owners, and a hobbled consumer sentiment. These are major headaches for anything more than a bounce-and-reset staircase type of pattern. It's not going to be pretty.
I expect a back-to-the-bad reality market anytime now. It may not happen until after the summer season, but I am now almost certain it will come before the year end. We've run the markets up so far in such a short period (albeit from ugly levels) that we will need a dose of reality soon. The correction may be fast and furious (not enough backfilling creates gaps without support. ). Or it may be one of those that just drags on and on...well, you know how it is since this current rally is of that sort.
Recently, i have closed out positions in FWLT, NUE, C, EMC, MFE, YHOO, ESC, DAL, PRXL, HBC, X, IP, MCD, KO, WFT, SNE, RIO, COG. Most of these were swing positions held over the course of several weeks. I currently have little confidence in any particular sector. Suffice it to say, I am now holding 70% cash and sitting patiently waiting for the next blip.
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