Overheated? I Think So.

I've been watching the travel sector the past couple months and have been pretty amazed at how it's pushed higher and higher. I see Starwood and Marriot continue to walk up the charts. I see Priceline, Orbitz and others popping bullishly. I see Hertz and Avis march in the same direction. Then I think to myself, "who's traveling these days?"

I understand that summer vacation usually translates into finding some R&R somewhere outside of your home. I also understand that businesses go on as usual. But, then I think about the housing crash and the jobless situation and the shuttering of so many businesses. These serious issues permeate everyday life and constrict most people and businesses to cutback everywhere they can. You have to be lean.

That brings me back to the travel industry. I think we've been overly optimistic here. I'm watching this closely for short entries. Airlines are consolidating and have been operating on a shoestring. Hotels are heavily discounting empty rooms. Traditional car rental agencies suck for the most part. And, even in a recovery these are the last to cycle thru...not the first.